Let us begin our discussion with the "Standard scoring"
as our default. Each offensive skill
position player gets 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and/or receiving, and 6
points for each touchdown scored. A QB
gets 1 point per 25 yards passing, and 4 points per touchdown, and all
turnovers score -1 points. This system
was originally devised as an easy way for people to track their team's score in
their head during game day back in a time when smart phones, apps, even wi-fi,
was not in existence. Now we have the
technology to track a wide range of statistics in real time, no matter how
complicated our scoring system. This
begs the question, what is the ultimate purpose of the scoring system? Your opinion may differ, but I believe that a
FF scoring system is an attempt to assign relative value to the acts football
players perform for their team's benefit.
The better a play, the greater value should be assigned to that
play. And at the end of the game, and
the end of the season, the accumulated points should reflect how well, or
poorly, those players have performed. Ideally,
such a scoring system could be used to designate season awards such as Pro Bowl
invitations and All-Pro awards.
So let's engage in an intellectual exercise. I am going to list a number of different
plays regarding the quarterback's play, and you rank them from the most
valuable to least valuable (or most detrimental) to his team. Everything in the game of football is
situational, so let’s set the stage – It is 3rd and 8, the ball at midfield,
with a called pass play, and the QB is pressured by the pass rush:
- QB throws 50 yards into the end zone, which is caught by the WR
for a TD.
- QB throws a 5-yard dump off pass, and the receiver takes it 45
yards for a TD.
- QB throws an incomplete pass 40 yards downfield, but it draws a pass interference call resulting in a 1st and Goal.
- QB scrambles 10 yards for a 1st down.
- QB throws 10 yards for a completion and 1st down.
- QB scrambles for only a 5-yard gain, forcing a 4th down.
- QB throws a 5-yard pass, and WR is immediately tackled forcing a
4th down.
- QB throws the ball out of bounds for an incompletion.
- QB is sacked for a 5-yard loss.
- QB is sacked, and fumbles, a teammate recovers for a 5-yard loss.
- QB throws an interception 40 yards downfield, the defender returns
it 10 yards.
- QB throws an interception 5 yards downfield, the defender returns
it 10 yards.
- QB is sacked, and fumbles, defender recovers and returns for
another 10 yards.
- QB throws an interception and the defender returns it for a
touchdown.
- QB is sacked, fumbles, and the recovering defender returns it for
a touchdown.
I ranked those 15 plays in order from what I believe is the most
valuable to most detrimental, though some of those plays are so close that they
may be of equal value to their team, such as the QB scrambling for 15 yards versus
passing for 15 yards, or likewise for 5 yards.
An argument could be made, however, that the QB run affects the mindset
of the defense, how they play going forward, and the fact that a QB has
demonstrated the ability to run will open things up and make positive plays
more easily attainable for the remainder of a game. I find the counterargument more persuasive, that
the greater value of those future plays will be captured by the fantasy points
assigned to those plays, and we should not be “jumping the gun” in assigning
more points to a play merely because it is a QB run.
The next step is to place proper value on each of those plays,
relative to each other. In standard
scoring, those plays score, in order: 6, 6, 0, 1, 0.4, 0.5, 0.2, 0, 0, 0, -1, -1,
-1, -1, and -1 points. There are some
obvious problems you can see without even going back and looking at which score
goes with which play. A couple plays are more valuable to the team (at least, in my opinion) than the play afterwards, yet accrue less fantasy point, such as the 5-yard scramble on 3rd and 8 failing to make the 1st
down that is assigned more points than a 10-yard completion. It may be that you believe a QB run is of
greater value than the same plays as a pass, but here, the alleged lesser
valued play gains more yards AND obtains a first down thus allowing the offense
to remain on the field and leaving open the potential for points to be put up
on the actual scoreboard, whereas the other play gained less yards and resulted
in a fourth down. This is a
problem. In fact, if you want to get
excited about this, you can borrow a phrase from my legal job, and call it a
travesty of justice. Other problems are
valuing several plays identically even though we have ranked them as being of
different relative value. A final
problem would be whether the points assigned to each play are appropriate
relative to each other, even if they are ranked correctly.
The other primary scoring system out there, PPR, merely adds a
point per each reception. This has no
change to the QB play. So let's score
these plays based on the primary player involved, either QB or WR, for
comparison’s sake:
Standard: 11, 11, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 0, -0.5, -1, -1, -1, -1, and
-1 points.
PPR pts: 12, 12, 0, 1, 2, 0.5, 1.5, 0, 0, -0.5, -1, -1, -1, -1, and
-1 points.
The PPR scoring system was adopted for very good reasons regarding
relative value of RBs versus other positions. And that's a topic I will address
shortly. But you can see how it skews
the play value regarding some types of plays versus others. From the perspective of the issues identified
above, the PPR scoring system is actually worse.
Now, before thinking about what statistics should be included in your
scoring system, go back and look at your list of ranked plays. Go to the play in which a QB scrambles for 10
yards and a 1st down. Let's say, for
argument's sake and to remove it from the Standard and PPR systems, assign it 2
points. Now, go back and assign points
to all of the other plays, with the primary focus being how those plays are
more valuable or detrimental to the team relative to that other play in which
the team advanced the ball 10 yards downfield and got a new first down.
Next, look at the things that are being counted in those plays,
and assign a point value to that thing that gets you to your relative value,
and if not, at least close to it. Look at yards gained, whether or not the ball
was completed, whether it resulted in a first down, etc., etc. The good news is that there are league
hosting sites that allow statistics such as first downs, sacks taken (by QB),
sack yardage lost, and fumbles/interceptions returned for touchdowns, to be tracked
and incorporated into a league scoring system.
Some other things that are needed to differentiate the relative value of
some of those plays above are not yet available such as depth of target, yards
after catch, dropped passes, pass interference penalty drawn (and yards by
penalty attained). Thankfully, the
statistics that are widely available continue to be expanded each year, and we
will be able to incorporate these into our leagues soon. In the meantime, keep
your focus on properly identifying and valuing each thing a player does on the
field.
Just for the sake of transparency, my main league that I started
in 2014 (The Ultimate Fantasy Football Salary Cap League, or TUFSCCL) would
score those plays above as follows (for QB):
8, 8, 0, 1.5, 1.4, 0.5, 0.2, -0.1, -2, -4, -5, -5, -6.5, -7, -8.5.
As depth of reception stats become available, I will be able to
differentiate the relative value of those first two plays as I think more of
the value belongs to the receiver than the quarterback in that second catch and
run touchdown.
