II. Scoring Rules

Let us begin our discussion with the "Standard scoring" as our default.  Each offensive skill position player gets 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and/or receiving, and 6 points for each touchdown scored.  A QB gets 1 point per 25 yards passing, and 4 points per touchdown, and all turnovers score -1 points.  This system was originally devised as an easy way for people to track their team's score in their head during game day back in a time when smart phones, apps, even wi-fi, was not in existence.  Now we have the technology to track a wide range of statistics in real time, no matter how complicated our scoring system.  This begs the question, what is the ultimate purpose of the scoring system?  Your opinion may differ, but I believe that a FF scoring system is an attempt to assign relative value to the acts football players perform for their team's benefit.  The better a play, the greater value should be assigned to that play.  And at the end of the game, and the end of the season, the accumulated points should reflect how well, or poorly, those players have performed.  Ideally, such a scoring system could be used to designate season awards such as Pro Bowl invitations and All-Pro awards.

So let's engage in an intellectual exercise.  I am going to list a number of different plays regarding the quarterback's play, and you rank them from the most valuable to least valuable (or most detrimental) to his team.   Everything in the game of football is situational, so let’s set the stage – It is 3rd and 8, the ball at midfield, with a called pass play, and the QB is pressured by the pass rush: 

• QB throws 50 yards into the end zone, which is caught by the WR for a TD.
• QB throws a 5-yard dump off pass, and the receiver takes it 45 yards for a TD.
• QB throws an incomplete pass 40 yards downfield, but it draws a pass interference call resulting in a 1st and Goal.
• QB scrambles 10 yards for a 1st down.
• QB throws 10 yards for a completion and 1st down.
• QB scrambles for only a 5-yard gain, forcing a 4th down.
• QB throws a 5-yard pass, and WR is immediately tackled forcing a 4th down.
• QB throws the ball out of bounds for an incompletion.
• QB is sacked for a 5-yard loss.
• QB is sacked, and fumbles, a teammate recovers for a 5-yard loss.
• QB throws an interception 40 yards downfield, the defender returns it 10 yards.
• QB throws an interception 5 yards downfield, the defender returns it 10 yards.
• QB is sacked, and fumbles, defender recovers and returns for another 10 yards.
• QB throws an interception and the defender returns it for a touchdown.
• QB is sacked, fumbles, and the recovering defender returns it for a touchdown. 

I ranked those 15 plays in order from what I believe is the most valuable to most detrimental, though some of those plays are so close that they may be of equal value to their team, such as the QB scrambling for 15 yards versus passing for 15 yards, or likewise for 5 yards.  An argument could be made, however, that the QB run affects the mindset of the defense, how they play going forward, and the fact that a QB has demonstrated the ability to run will open things up and make positive plays more easily attainable for the remainder of a game.  I find the counterargument more persuasive, that the greater value of those future plays will be captured by the fantasy points assigned to those plays, and we should not be “jumping the gun” in assigning more points to a play merely because it is a QB run. 

The next step is to place proper value on each of those plays, relative to each other.  In standard scoring, those plays score, in order: 6, 6, 0, 1, 0.4, 0.5, 0.2, 0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, and -1 points.  There are some obvious problems you can see without even going back and looking at which score goes with which play.  A couple plays are more valuable to the team (at least, in my opinion) than the play afterwards, yet accrue less fantasy point, such as the 5-yard scramble on 3rd and 8 failing to make the 1^st down that is assigned more points than a 10-yard completion.  It may be that you believe a QB run is of greater value than the same plays as a pass, but here, the alleged lesser valued play gains more yards AND obtains a first down thus allowing the offense to remain on the field and leaving open the potential for points to be put up on the actual scoreboard, whereas the other play gained less yards and resulted in a fourth down.  This is a problem.  In fact, if you want to get excited about this, you can borrow a phrase from my legal job, and call it a travesty of justice.  Other problems are valuing several plays identically even though we have ranked them as being of different relative value.  A final problem would be whether the points assigned to each play are appropriate relative to each other, even if they are ranked correctly.

The other primary scoring system out there, PPR, merely adds a point per each reception.  This has no change to the QB play.   So let's score these plays based on the primary player involved, either QB or WR, for comparison’s sake: 

Standard: 11, 11, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 0, -0.5, -1, -1, -1, -1, and -1 points.     

PPR pts: 12, 12, 0, 1, 2, 0.5, 1.5, 0, 0, -0.5, -1, -1, -1, -1, and -1 points. 

The PPR scoring system was adopted for very good reasons regarding relative value of RBs versus other positions.  And that's a topic I will address shortly.  But you can see how it skews the play value regarding some types of plays versus others.  From the perspective of the issues identified above, the PPR scoring system is actually worse. 

Now, before thinking about what statistics should be included in your scoring system, go back and look at your list of ranked plays.  Go to the play in which a QB scrambles for 10 yards and a 1st down.  Let's say, for argument's sake and to remove it from the Standard and PPR systems, assign it 2 points.  Now, go back and assign points to all of the other plays, with the primary focus being how those plays are more valuable or detrimental to the team relative to that other play in which the team advanced the ball 10 yards downfield and got a new first down. 

Next, look at the things that are being counted in those plays, and assign a point value to that thing that gets you to your relative value, and if not, at least close to it. Look at yards gained, whether or not the ball was completed, whether it resulted in a first down, etc., etc.  The good news is that there are league hosting sites that allow statistics such as first downs, sacks taken (by QB), sack yardage lost, and fumbles/interceptions returned for touchdowns, to be tracked and incorporated into a league scoring system.  Some other things that are needed to differentiate the relative value of some of those plays above are not yet available such as depth of target, yards after catch, dropped passes, pass interference penalty drawn (and yards by penalty attained).  Thankfully, the statistics that are widely available continue to be expanded each year, and we will be able to incorporate these into our leagues soon. In the meantime, keep your focus on properly identifying and valuing each thing a player does on the field. 

Just for the sake of transparency, my main league that I started in 2014 (The Ultimate Fantasy Football Salary Cap League, or TUFSCCL) would score those plays above as follows (for QB):  8, 8, 0, 1.5, 1.4, 0.5, 0.2, -0.1, -2, -4, -5, -5, -6.5, -7, -8.5.

As depth of reception stats become available, I will be able to differentiate the relative value of those first two plays as I think more of the value belongs to the receiver than the quarterback in that second catch and run touchdown.